Andrew Hagen

For many years I believed in global warming theory (anthropogenic global warming (AGW)). I had grown skeptical of it recently, however. Average temperatures have not climbed for several years as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have steadily increased. The polar bear population is increasing despite predictions that polar bears would die off.

AGW scientists claim that a catastrophe is imminent, we are not allowed to see their data or methods, we must not question “settled science” or award-winning propaganda films or the fixing of the peer review process, and if we don’t absorb a multi-trillion dollar cost to the world economy very soon, we will be very sorry.

Now, however, with the revelations of Climategate, I now longer believe global warming theory to be accurate. Climategate appears to make Piltdown Man look like a botched game of tiddlywinks. Climate science is an important endeavor, and it’s a shame that it has become associated with fraud. Whatever effect that carbon emission may have on the planet, it does not appear to be particularly worrisome at this time.

Update: A new study finds that Mount Kiliminjaro’s icecap melted due to a natural cycle, not due to anything that mankind has done. NASA is also alleged to be hiding climate data and methods.

Ethanol continues to inspire debate. (*)

From the start, the debate over ethanol has centered on a few simple questions: Is it cheaper to produce than fuels made from fossil fuels? And does it create more energy than it takes to produce it? But despite decades of research, the debate continues over the wisdom of pouring billions of dollars into ethanol production.

Ethanol production needs additional study.

Over 100,000 are now known to be dead. (*)

The SEA-EAT blog is serving as a clearinghouse for information on how to help. (†)

The International Committee of the Red Cross is accepting donations. (‡)

Donations can be also made through Amazon. (§)

Frequent flier miles can be donated through Delta (**) and Continental. (††)

The massive, 9.0 magnitude seaquake off of Aceh, Indonesia on December 26 caused massive tsunamis that inundated coastal areas around the eastern Indian Ocean. (*) At least 80,000 are dead, and the figure will climb higher. Aid is thankfully pouring in, but the scale of the disaster will make it difficult to manage.

Piero Scaruffi lists some of the worst natural disasters in history. (†)

Munich Re states that 2004 is the “costliest natural disaster year ever.” (‡) Yet, most of the losses from the recent quake were not insured. With the growing threat of global climate shifts, destruction from storms will grow.

There is no known relation between tsunamis and global warming.

The atmosphere has experienced a swift rise in CO₂ levels in the last two years. (*)

As the evidence mounts it becomes more difficult to deny the fact of global warming. The real debate now is the cause.

We need political leaders who will turn to science on critical environmental questions such as global warming. To willfully refuse to use the gift of our minds in investigating this important issue would be the height of human folly.

Furthermore, science needs to adopt a more open-minded approach to “heretical” theories.

Global warming remains somewhat of an open question. Unquestionably, however, the survival of the human race depends not least upon open-mindedness.

The BBC looks into noise pollution at sea. Underwater noise emanating from large ships, submarines, sonar, seismic testing, and so on disables and kills whales and dolphins. Some say an international treaty may be required. (*)

It is arrogant of us, the human race, to assume we have the right to disrupt the lives of any other species whenever we find it convenient. Our technological creations are wondrous, but we should re-calibrate them for minimal intrusion. I support a treaty to stop marine noise pollution.

I had not heard before that the current levels of carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas, are at their highest levels in Earth’s atmosphere for the past 55 million years. (*) Surely there are always fluctuations, but the last time they were so high, there was no ice on Earth.

Climate change is rapidly occurring. We need to know why, and we can’t let politics get in the way of scientific research.

A young female Ukranian motorcyclist offers an eerie photographic tour of the ruins of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. (*)

Update: 4 April 2004. Removed old link. Current link works.

Update: 7 July 2004. The Los Angeles Times is now reporting that this Chernobyl-themed web site is a hoax. (†) In part, the story reads:

The updated site does not appear to contain any authentic images of “Elena” or a motorcycle in any Chernobyl location. Four pictures on the updated site can be traced to a Ukrainian coffee table book published in 2000, some are aerial shots, and many are anachronisms. One photo is of chemical showers that have not existed for years. In another, the tall ventilation stack of the ruined reactor looms above some saplings. But those trees have since grown so high that only the tip of the stack is visible today.

The purported author of the web site, Elena, nicknaming herself “Kidd of Speed” or “Kid of Speed,” has not responded on her site, now available to kiddofspeed.com. (‡)

The Guardian looks into the findings of researchers that levels of sunlight reaching the Earth have decreased significantly. It’s called global dimming. (*) We don’t know what causes global dimming, but we do know that it is not caused by a change in the sun. The dimming is occurring in that part of the electromagnetic spectrum made of visible light and infrared radiation.

A good guess of the cause is the level of dust and soot in the air, sometimes called “particulate matter.” These microscopic specks of free-floating matter may be absorbing sunlight, preventing it from reaching the surface of the earth.

The potential implications for the global warming debate are high. If the globe has not been warming up on average as fast as current models predict, it may nevertheless be the case that we are experiencing a greenhouse effect from carbon in the atmosphere. The lack of an increase in average global temperature may be attributed to reduced infrared radiation associated with global dimming. The greenhouse gas effect and global dimming could be acting together to occlude our insight into global warming.

It is not clear whether global dimming will become a major problem, or when. This phenomenon is very important and needs to be studied.

Gregg Easterbrook applauds the new voluntary agreement between automakers to implement changes on SUVs that will improve safety and reduce risks to passengers in SUVs and other vehicles. (*) It appears to be a clear victory. (†)

The banana we know and love may cease to exist in as little as ten years. It has too little genetic diversity to survive pests, scientists say. (*) (†) Whatever genetic wizardry science may try, it seems impossible that the look and the taste of the banana will remain as they are for long. (‡)

It should be noted that many other varieties of bananas will continue to exist, and will continue to be diet staples for millions. (§) Only the yellow-skinned fruit known as the Cavendish banana is under threat.

Thus, I might as well relate now the best method of eating a banana: point the stem down and use it as a handle, peeling from the other end. It is remarkable that eating a banana in such a manner appears humorous to some.

Today is Earth Day. (*) If you want to do one thing for the environment, and aren’t yet registered to vote, then the first thing you should do is get registered. (†) Every vote matters, as we learned in 2000. Only 559 days to go until the next Presidential election. Remember to vote. Always.

One of the great problems of today for the human race is the mass extinction of species. (‡) Millions of species and one-quarter of all mammals stand at the chopping block thanks to humanity’s rapacious appetite for resources. The long-term danger is, of course, that as the planet enjoys less and less biodiversity, it will become less livable and hospitable, even for human beings.

The latest Rachel’s Weekly carries a report by Bette Hileman of the American Chemical Society. She reports that cancer in US children has increased at a rate of 1% per year since the early 1970s. Other serious pediatric conditions, such as asthma, are also on the rise. (§) Many of these problems are attributable to the prevalence of certain destructive chemicals in the environment. Meanwhile, the American Chemical Council plans to spend $50 million to refurbish the chemical industry’s public image.

A recent study finds that the US government’s threshold for lead levels in children is still too high. Even exposure to a tiny amount of lead can harm a child, and even do permanent damage. (**)

President George W. Bush’s track record on environmental issues is atrocious. The Sierra Club offers the Big Book of Bush, full of entertaining tidbits on Bush’s misguided environmental policies. (††)

Happy Earth Day, everybody.

Update: 23 April 2003. It’s nice to see a puncturing of the Bush Administration’s environmental doublespeak. (‡‡)

Some of the genetically modified organisms (GMOs) pushed by Monsanto, including Roundup Ready grain products, are facing stronger and stronger resistance by farmers, especially in North Dakota. (*) The problem is that Monsanto’s genetically modified wheat, for example, might spread and contaminate natural wheat. Then, if foreign buyers continue to reject genetically modified food products, farmers could be unable to sell either modified wheat or natural wheat except at a reduced price. The worry is that the price reduction would be large.

Note that Monsanto’s business health is not directly tied to the health of farms. If farming operations suffer, other, larger corporate-owned operations will take up the slack. Therefore, farmers are wise to be a little suspicious about Monsanto’s new products like its Roundup Ready line.

Update: 9 April 2004. Linked by Patently Obvious (†) who has more information.

In a book review for the New Republic, Gregg Easterbrook writes bitterly about that class of automobiles known by the industrial acronym SUV, the Sport Utility Vehicle. (*) Easterbrook relates some of the myth-shattering points raised in Keith Bradsher’s book, High and Mighty: SUVs crash more than sedans; SUV passengers are more likely to die than sedan passengers; many SUVs are incapable of carrying or pulling more weight than sedans; SUVs are less maneuverable; SUVs have a higher center of gravity, leading to an increased chance of rolling over; SUVs are heavier and have inferior brakes compared to sedans, leading to longer stopping distances; and due to their larger size they worsen traffic jams. Of course, SUVs have poorer fuel efficiency, and pollute the air more than do other cars, as can be seen at the EPA’s online Green Vehicle Guide. (†)

Perhaps things are changing, however. Easterbrook notes that two years ago a US tariff was removed that had limited the extent of foreign competition in the SUV market. More competition and greater consumer demand for SUVs that are safer and cleaner should lead to an improved product. It would also be helpful if auto insurance companies were allowed to raise premiums for less safe classes of vehicles, which would include SUVs. The public policy ramifications of these vehicles will in any case be with us for years to come, from polluted skies to highway deaths to dependence on foreign oil.

The only thing that can reduce the marketshare of SUVs would be another oil shortage, such as that caused by OPEC in 1973. Today that seems highly unlikely. Of course, an oil shortage must have seemed just as unlikely in the 1950s and 1960s, when steel behemoths last ruled the road. The best outcome would be a significant improvement in the SUV product. An oil shortage would have the effect of a giant tax on consumers, and would thus be undesirable.

Update: NHTSA Administrator Jeffrey Runge has recently reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to improving SUV safety. (‡) (§) Peter Valdes-Dapena looks into why SUVs are so unsafe for their passengers. (**) He finds that the SUV’s high ground clearance combines with its poor maneuverability to make rollover crashes more likely. Such crashes are deadly. Single-vehicle rollovers accounted for over half of all SUV passenger deaths in 2000. Inexperienced drivers are likely to drive an SUV just as they would a car, but an SUV is not nearly so forgiving as a car when the driver makes sudden, sharp turns, as young, inexperienced drivers are wont to. In my opinion, a driver’s first car should not be a car of this type.

Twenty million barrels of oil have sunk miles beneath the Atlantic Ocean, creating a timebomb that could go off anytime just off a pristine Spanish coastline. The Liberian-registered and Bahamian-flagged oil tanker MV Prestige somehow had developed a giant, gaping 50 meter gash amidships on her starboard side as she sailed through stormy conditions north of the Iberian peninsula. To say she was seaworthy when she set from port would simply be laughable. After a few days of listing and leaking two million barrels of oil, she broke up and sank. (*) (†) (‡) Ibidem has excellent coverage. (§) Obviously, neither Liberia nor the Bahamas troubled themselves with assessing the vessel. Their willingness to put their mark on a ship is inhibited by nothing but greed. Though I am not a lawyer, the private owners and lessors are probably now on the hook for very significant damages as fishing industries and wildlife areas are ruined. They knew the risks going in, and must have known that she wasn’t safe, but still chose the MV Prestige for their shipping business.

This is a textbook case where the free market has broken down and massive externalities—costs to parties not associated with the business transaction itself—must be borne by people who had nothing at stake and everything to lose. Regulation is called for. Something must done be at an international level to further ship safety, particularly that of oil tankers.