Andrew Hagen

I don’t know if you might have heard, but John Kerry is a veteran of the Vietnam War.

Within Newsweek’s election special are several informative articles on the Kerry campaign.

Theresa Heinz Kerry and her drinking proved a significant distraction on the campaign trail. (*)

Kerry failed to evince great leadership ability. (†)

Kerry was paralyzed when the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ran their ads. (‡) His ineffectual response to damaging charges reminds me of the Dukakis campaign.

Charles Johnson of LGF points out an exit poll result showing that Bush increased his vote total among those with a high school degree, some college, college degrees, and post-grad study compared to his performance in the last election. (*) Kerry attracted proportionately fewer votes from those groups than did Al Gore in 2000.

Bob Shrum is a Democratic campaign manager. He has managed several successful Senate campaigns and other races. Yet, he has never won a presidential race. In fact, with the loss of John Kerry to George W Bush, Bob Shrum is now 0 for 8 in presidential campaigns. (*)

Some joke that there is a “Shrum curse.” His real problem, however, is his apparent inability to learn from his mistakes.

Rule #1 for Democratic presidential candidates in 2008 should be do not let Bob Shrum work in any capacity in your campaign.

The 2008 election looks like 2000, a wide open affair. Dick Cheney has already stated he will not run. Here are some who may throw their hat in the ring.

Republican candidates:

• Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York
• Bill Frist, Senator from Tennessee
• Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida
• John McCain, Senator from Arizona
• Dan Quayle, former Vice-President
• Gary Bauer, conservative activist
• Condoleeza Rice, National Security Advisor
• Donald Trump, businessman
• Tom Ridge, Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Pennsylvania
• George Allen, Senator from Virginia
• Rick Santorum, Senator from Pennsylvania
• Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts
• George Pataki, Governor of New York

Democratic candidates

• Hillary Rodham Clinton, Senator from New York and former First Lady
• Al Gore, former Vice-President
• John Kerry, Senator from Massachusetts
• John Edwards, Senator from North Carolina
• Tom Daschle, Senator from South Dakota
• Joseph Biden, Senator from Delaware
• Bill Bradley, former Senator from New Jersey
• Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont
• Richard Gephardt, Congressional Represenative from Missouri
• Wesley Clark, former US Army General
• Joseph Lieberman, Senator from Connecticut
• Al Sharpton, liberal activist
• Dennis Kucinich, Congressional Representative from Ohio
• Barack Obama, Senator-elect from Illinois
• Harold Ford, Jr, Congressional representative from Tennessee
• Bob Graham, Senator from Florida
• Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former US Ambassador to the United Nations
• Evan Bayh, Senator from Indiana
• Gary Hart, former Senator from Colorado
• Mark Warner, Governor of Virginia
• Rod Blagojevich, Governor of Illinois
• Tom Vilsack, Governor of Iowa

Jeb Bush has said he will not run in 2008, but I don’t believe that.

This list will likely change, of course.

Bush won a crushing majority of counties in the US. (*) Kerry polled weakly in suburban and rural areas.

The gay marriage agenda suffered a devastating defeat on Tuesday. Not only did Kerry lose to Bush, but all eleven of the state initiatives to affirm the definition of marriage easily passed, including that in liberal Oregon. (†) Gay activists pushed gay marriage onto the national stage with Goodridge in Massachusetts and the illegal “marriages” in California and other states. The backlash occurred. The federal marriage amendment has a much better chance of passing now.

CNN has a useful compilation of exit poll data. (‡) This year’s exit polls were biased toward Kerry because 55% of those polled were women, even though the sexes probably voted at an equal rate.

The exit poll data is telling.

• Kerry won only 54% of the 18–29 vote. He lost every other age group.
• Kerry won 89% of Democratic voters. Bush won 93% of Republican voters. Independents were split 48 to 49. Republicans and Democrats each made up 37% of the vote. Independents made up 26% of the vote. In summary, Bush won because fewer Republicans defected from his camp than Democrats defected from Kerry’s.
• Conservative voters comprised 34% of voters, liberals only 21%. This result is consistent with other polls that find more Americans to be conservative than liberal.
• Bush won 25% of the Jewish vote, and 52% of the Catholic vote. These numbers are historically very high. This likely corresponds with the greater number of Democratic Bush voters than Republican Kerry voters.
• Bush won 23% of the gay vote.
• Bush won among churchgoers, married people, people with children, servicemen and women and veterans, and gunowners.
• The most important issue was moral values, with 22% of those surveyed citing them. The next most important were economy/jobs (20%), terrorism (19%), and Iraq (15%).
• Despite all the media talk about America being less safe, 54% of voters surveyed said America was more safe than it was four years ago. Only 41% said less safe.
• Only 28% of voters said their family’s financial situation was worse than four years ago. That vote went 79% for Kerry.
• Only 25% of voters supported gay marriage. Nevertheless, a whopping 35% of voters supported civil unions.
• For those who thought the Osama Bin Laden video was very important, Kerry won 53% of the vote. Bin Laden succeeded in helping Kerry, but only a little.

The exit poll results confirm Bush’s election strategy, and thoroughly repudiate Kerry’s.

International observers praised the 2004 elections as “mostly free and fair.” A very good criticism they made, however, is that long lines at polling places likely deter voters. (§) Part of the election reform we need is more polling places. No American cictizen should have to wait in line more than a few minutes. This would also reduce the number of early voters and absentee voters.

Voter turnout was the highest since 1968. (**) Bush’s win in these circumstances casts doubt upon the old conventional wisdom that higher turnout favors Democrats. It now appears to be the opposite.

Greg Palast completes the self-destruction of his own credibility by claiming Kerry won Ohio (*) despite the lack of any actual evidence.

The New York Times reports: (*)

The critical moment came at 12:41 a.m. Wednesday, when, shortly after Florida had been painted red for Mr. Bush, Fox News declared that Ohio - and, very likely, the presidency - was in Republican hands.

Howard Wolfson, a strategist, burst into the “boiler room” in Washington where the brain trust was huddled and said, “we have 30 seconds” to stop the other networks from following suit.

The campaign’s pollster, Mark Mellman, and the renowned organizer Michael Whouley quickly dialed ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC - and all but the last refrained from calling the race through the night.

This was a corrupt practice by both the Kerry campaign and CBS, ABC, and CNN. At least NBC (and MSNBC) had the integrity to reach an honest conclusion.

The uncertainty created a false belief in Kerry’s possible success that, when shattered Wednesday morning, caused great disappointment amongst his supporters.

The bulge in the back of George W Bush’s suit in the first debate was a strap on his bulletproof vest, Hill News reports, citing Secret Service sources. (*)

George W Bush wins re-election. (*)

When will liberals look in the mirror? The American people do not disagree with our basic values. They disagree with the approach.

It’s time for a rethink.

As for the Democratic Party, the ship sails perilous close to extinction of its credibility. Look for lifeboats.

Bush may claim victory today. (*) If he does, Kerry may feel obligated to also claim victory because Gore did not in 2000 during that dispute. But will he be so brash?

Bush’s popular majority bolsters his claim to legitimacy. Kerry would have to overcome a 140,000 vote margin in Ohio, and pull out a victory in New Mexico or Iowa.

At this point, nothing strongly suggests that Kerry can do it. It looks over.

Now the GOP can do what it wants.

Bush has almost certainly won re-election.

The Republicans will retain control by a slim majority in the Senate (*) and by a strong majority in the House.

The Supreme Court will almost certainly see new appointments in the next four years.

Bush may win a true popular majority of the vote.

Bush’s second term will not be stained with questions of legitimacy as was his first due to Bush v. Gore.

The Democrats are reeling at the local level nationwide.

According to NBC News, morality was the most important issue according to 21% of voters surveyed, the largest percentage. Bush won those voters by a factor of 80 to 20.

The GOP has the whip hand now. Soon they can take this country in whatever direction they want.

But will they use their new power moderately, or will they grow reckless and corrupt? Will they strive to achieve their aims, or will they become their own worst enemy?

Bush has swept the South.

Now with Ohio nearly won, it appears that Bush will win this election.

It would be a painful defeat for the Democratic Party.

Instead of prematurely calling races as they did in 2000, the major news networks (*) (†) all apparently have the same gameplan. If it’s close, they aren’t calling it.

Maybe the official results will come in before they call the swing states. Then there would be no reason to pay attention to the mainstream media projections.

Remember to vote today.

Our free country stands thanks to democracy and the rule of law, service and sacrifice.

Total electors: 538.

Total electors needed to clinch win: 270

Electoral college analysis

Bush “red state” electors: 213

Kerry “blue state” electors: 203

Swing state electors: 122.

Results in swing states, number of electors:

• New Hampshire, 4
• Pennsylvania, 21
• Florida, 27
• Ohio, 20
• Iowa, 7
• Wisconsin, 10
• Minnesota, 10
• Colorado, 9
• New Mexico, 5
• Nevada, 5
• Hawaii, 4

If each candidate wins 269 electors, the Twelfth Amendment gives the tie-breaking procedure.

Update: The Drudge Report says: “Enough of the media exits; let’s count the people’s votes!” Bravo, Matt Drudge, Bravo. Compiled official election results.

I often like what Ralph Peters says, but he gets it wrong when he calls on America to just unite behind the winner of the election for the sake of unity. (*) Yet, I fervently agree that America needs unity.

We should not sacrifice what is vital for the sake of a brief moment of unity. Our national survival is not foreseeably threatened within the next couple of years. We will make it at least that far.

What America most needs is true unity. Absolutely required for true unity is excellent political leadership, a trait not possessed by Messers. Bush or Kerry.

There will be no false unity. There will be hell to pay for every mistake by tomorrow’s electoral winner. That will be the only way to keep this bunch on the right course.

The chief propaganda network of terrorism, Al Jazeera, has now released the full transcript of Bin Laden’s hateful screed. His diatribe apparently lasts 18 minutes. (*)

Bin Laden offers no future. He is committed only to nihilism and mayhem. The only question is how many innocent people and dupes will he take down with him.

Stanford University has made a classical error by predicting a Bush victory with an “84% probability.” (*)

There is only going to be one election. There is no probability or odds that can apply.

What would have been proper for Stanford University to have said is this: “Out of 100 imaginary elections, Bush would beat Kerry about 84 times. Neverthless, in the election that will be held tomorrow, we just don’t know who will win.”

That would have made a less exciting headline, however.

It’s too bad that the nation’s elite—at Stanford—fail to understand basic statistical analysis.

Stanford’s “methodology” section (†) is laughable. It ignores the most basic point. One cannot apply probability to single future events.

Stanford’s nonsensical “prediction” also shows the general poverty of social science as it exists in the year 2004.

Tim Cavanaugh whines that the liberal hawks have endorsed Kerry when they had earlier supported Operation Iraqi Freedom. (*) It’s true that the “forward strategy of freedom” liberal hawks like Paul Berman are now Kerry supporters.

Some of the anti–WMD liberal hawks are not Kerry supporters, though. Christopher Hitchens has clarified his position as ambivalence. (†) Yet, Kenneth Timmerman is pro-Kerry.

My own position as a minor anti–WMD liberal hawk is ambivalence as well. I was never pro-Bush, and so I haven’t abandoned him.

What Cavanaugh’s extended bleating does prove, however, is George W Bush’s distinct inability to unite the country. He’s no Churchill and no Roosevelt.