Housing boom.

The Economist analyzes the data and finds we are in the middle of the largest housing bubble ever observed. (*) This will lead to economic decline, even in the US, they say.

In his recent testimony to the Joint Economic Committee, however, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said:

Although we certainly cannot rule out home price declines, especially in some local markets, these declines, were they to occur, likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications. Nationwide banking and widespread securitization of mortgages make it less likely that financial intermediation would be impaired than was the case in prior episodes of regional house price corrections. Moreover, a substantial rise in bankruptcies would require a quite-significant overall reduction in the national housing price level because the vast majority of homeowners have built up substantial equity in their homes despite large home equity withdrawals in recent years financed by the mortgage market.

(† PDF p. 7) I believe Greenspan has the better argument as it concerns the US, and that the likely outcome for the US will be a reduction in home prices in certain markets (notably Miami), and a slower increase in the value of housing nationwide in the near future.

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