Analysis of presidential election 2004 results.
Bush won a crushing majority of counties in the US. (*) Kerry polled weakly in suburban and rural areas.
The gay marriage agenda suffered a devastating defeat on Tuesday. Not only did Kerry lose to Bush, but all eleven of the state initiatives to affirm the definition of marriage easily passed, including that in liberal Oregon. (†) Gay activists pushed gay marriage onto the national stage with Goodridge in Massachusetts and the illegal “marriages” in California and other states. The backlash occurred. The federal marriage amendment has a much better chance of passing now.
CNN has a useful compilation of exit poll data. (‡) This year’s exit polls were biased toward Kerry because 55% of those polled were women, even though the sexes probably voted at an equal rate.
The exit poll data is telling.
- Kerry won only 54% of the 18–29 vote. He lost every other age group.
- Kerry won 89% of Democratic voters. Bush won 93% of Republican voters. Independents were split 48 to 49. Republicans and Democrats each made up 37% of the vote. Independents made up 26% of the vote. In summary, Bush won because fewer Republicans defected from his camp than Democrats defected from Kerry’s.
- Conservative voters comprised 34% of voters, liberals only 21%. This result is consistent with other polls that find more Americans to be conservative than liberal.
- Bush won 25% of the Jewish vote, and 52% of the Catholic vote. These numbers are historically very high. This likely corresponds with the greater number of Democratic Bush voters than Republican Kerry voters.
- Bush won 23% of the gay vote.
- Bush won among churchgoers, married people, people with children, servicemen and women and veterans, and gunowners.
- The most important issue was moral values, with 22% of those surveyed citing them. The next most important were economy/jobs (20%), terrorism (19%), and Iraq (15%).
- Despite all the media talk about America being less safe, 54% of voters surveyed said America was more safe than it was four years ago. Only 41% said less safe.
- Only 28% of voters said their family’s financial situation was worse than four years ago. That vote went 79% for Kerry.
- Only 25% of voters supported gay marriage. Nevertheless, a whopping 35% of voters supported civil unions.
- For those who thought the Osama Bin Laden video was very important, Kerry won 53% of the vote. Bin Laden succeeded in helping Kerry, but only a little.
The exit poll results confirm Bush’s election strategy, and thoroughly repudiate Kerry’s.
International observers praised the 2004 elections as “mostly free and fair.” A very good criticism they made, however, is that long lines at polling places likely deter voters. (§) Part of the election reform we need is more polling places. No American cictizen should have to wait in line more than a few minutes. This would also reduce the number of early voters and absentee voters.
Voter turnout was the highest since 1968. (**) Bush’s win in these circumstances casts doubt upon the old conventional wisdom that higher turnout favors Democrats. It now appears to be the opposite.