Portents?
I believe Osama Bin Laden is dead (*), and that the audiotape (†) was made by someone who has a voice similar to Bin Laden’s, perhaps his son’s. That would explain why Bin Laden himself no longer appears in new videotapes. In any case, the tape is clearly from Al Qaeda. It must have been approved by Zawahiri.
The man claiming to be Bin Laden in his most recent message called on European nations to enter into a “truce” with Al Qaeda. This is the infamous hudna, a strategy frequently employed by radical Muslims to offer a false peace for the purpose of fighting at a later, more opportune time. (‡) Bin Laden said that European countries can enter the “truce” anytime within 90 days. At the beginning of the message, Bin Laden mentioned the 9/11 and 3/11 (Madrid) attacks. (§)
European politicians have uniformly rejected Bin Laden’s call for a truce. (**) The message would thus represent a grave strategic mistake by Al Qaeda. On the other hand, considering that Al Qaeda’s leadership has proven itself politically nimble, such a grave mistake would be highly unusual for them. Perhaps there is another prong to their strategy.
If Al Qaeda were to successfully attack the US, Canada (a non-European country) or the UK (a close ally of the US in the Iraq campaign), that would make Bin Laden’s call for a “truce” more powerful to European nations. Such an attack would have to occur within the 90 day period. It seems likely to me that such an attack would have more effect if it were carried out earlier in the 90 day period rather than later in the period.
Bin Laden’s message thus suggests that an attack by Al Qaeda against the US, Canada, or the UK may be imminent.
Recall that Bin Laden’s message prominently mentioned 9/11 and 3/11. As has been widely reported, exactly 911 days separated 11 September 2001 and 11 March 2004. That is either a coincidence or a sign that Al Qaeda’s leadership is invested in superstitious beliefs and mysticism. I lean toward the latter. It is evidence, I think, that the dates of Al Qaeda’s major attacks are based on a numerical pattern.
Exactly 911 hours separate 3/11 and this Monday, April 19th. That is, exactly 911 hours separate midnight (12:00 AM) March 12 (the end of March 11) and midnight (12:00 AM) this Monday, April 19th. (The US, Canada, and the UK all lost an hour for daylight savings time.)
An attack this Monday would thus fall into a pattern of attacks separated by 911 units of time. Furthermore, 911 minutes into April 19th would be about 3:00 PM to 4:00 PM. Another possibility would be an attack on June 11th (6/11). This would fall into a pattern of attacks on the 11th of each month that is a multiple of three.
The Arabic calendar is different than our Julian calendar. Yet in both calendars the 9/11 and 3/11 attacks were separated by 911 days. This suggests that the April 19th date is more likely. On the other hand, the 911 number seems intended to recall the 9/11 attacks. This relies on the Julian calendar, and suggests that 6/11 is more likely.
While the US practice of putting the number of the month before the number of the day (”9/11″ instead of “11/9″) is not the practice of other countries, the terrorists have made the US their top priority target. They thus may use the US practice of putting the month first.
April 19th is the anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing. A current re-investigation into the perpetrators of that attack is underway. (††) (‡‡)
I would recommend that the US Department of Homeland Security consider raising the national threat level from orange to red, “High,” for the April 18th through April 20th period and for the June 10th through June 12th period. The current national threat level is orange, “Elevated.” (§§)
Chicago, and specifically, Sears Tower, seem to be the most likely targets in the US. With airline security improved, Al Qaeda may attempt to use a truck bomb.
For the same periods of time, Canada and the UK should be on a high state vigilance.
I believe Canada could be a target because it helped liberate Afghanistan, is friendly to the US, is a non-European country, and has lax immigration laws.
The UK could also be a target. Al Qaeda may want to make an example out of the UK in an attempt to trick other European countries into a “truce.”
Finally, one possible kind of target that Al Qaeda may hit is a mosque. That may seem counterintuitive, but Al Qaeda could blow up a mosque and plant false evidence to blame the attack on anti-Muslim bigots. This might be an attempt to win public sympathy for Al Qaeda. A mosque attack by Al Qaeda might be timed to occur soon after any April 19th attacks, for example. That would make it look like retaliation and serve Al Qaeda’s purpose of escalating the conflict. I am especially concerned about a mosque attack in the UK, because of the recent anti-multiculturalism arguments made by prominent figures in that country. (***)