Andrew Hagen

Norman Geras has a pair of interesting perspectives on the current Iraq uprising. First, Geras has a long quotation from Stratfor on the real meaning behind the small faction of Shiites who are in rebellion as led by Moktada Al-Sadr (*)

Second, Geras links to the Iraqi blog the Mesopotamian. There, Alaa writes:

[Y]ou will be astonished that the solution is not as hard as you might imagine. Aggressive commitment and firmness by the Coalition coupled with a political approach to be simultaneously launched to form a government that is more convincing than the present set up, and one that can be capable of exercising real authority. The impetus of military action should be immediately and urgently used to press for the political end.

At the same time I believe that an economic offensive of labor-intensive projects should be initiated with the main objective of creating employment in economically feasible ways.

(†) Fortunately, that is what we are doing.

Many commentators have compared the current Iraq uprising to the Tet Offensive in Vietnam. For those who are not aware, on 30 January 1968, North Vietnam launched a very aggressive offensive on South Vietnam. Within several weeks, the North Vietnam proxies known as the Viet Cong were totally destroyed, control of South Vietnam was fully restored, and the communists were crushed in miserable defeat. While the battlefield victory was secure, the attack was shocking to the American public. President Lyndon Johnson had told the American public that everything was going to be fine in South Vietnam. The media ran with the story. The result was psychological defeat in the midst of military victory. This psychological defeat of the US allowed the communists to eventually drive out the US and win the war. Millions were killed and enslaved because Americans were led to believe, falsely, that South Vietnam was neither defensible nor worth defending.

In contrast, nothing of the sort is occurring in Iraq. This uprising is quite small, and limited to several pockets. We have suffered some American casualties, but it is remarkable that only a few dozen American lives have been lost in the midst of this desperate shriek of an uprising.

President Bush has never said that everything was going to be fine in Iraq. He has always said the struggle will be long and difficult. The American media is running with the story, but this time the Internet and alternative news sources will give Americans all of the facts.

Inevitably, the coalition will win both on the battlefield and in the psychological struggle.

Vietnam War hero and Arizona Senator John McCain severely disagrees that the present situation is comparable to that of the Tet Offensive. (‡)

Mackubin Thomas Ownes gives a detailed historical comparison and finds the two situations very different. Moreover, he concludes:

[S]ince there is no enemy conventional force in being, anti-Coalition forces can harass the U.S. forces and inflict casualties, but they cannot prevail unless we permit them to.

(§) That accords with my basic point that if we make the effort, we will win.

Robert Alt makes several good, relevant points, especially on psychological warfare. (**)

Arnaud de Borchgrave blasts the comparison between Tet in 1968 and Iraq today. (††)

The blog Useful Fools warns against Tet Syndrome. (‡‡)

Drawing on these analyses, we can come to a conclusion. The plain fact is that our troops in Iraq have enough firepower to blow away entire cities very rapidly. The point is, we don’t want to do that. We want an Iraq different from Saddam’s version. We want a peaceful and free Iraq.

Counterinsurgency presents difficulties and challenges because it is not simple. Rest assured, however, that, the US military and our coalition partners can do the job and do it well.

We must stay the course. When we stand our ground, we win. It will not be easy, but we can and will triumph.

Updated: 12 April 2004.

This entry was posted on Saturday, April 10th, 2004 at 16:05 and is filed under Iraq. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.