Electoral College 2004.
Can the Democratic nominee, John Kerry or other, beat George Bush without competing in the South? The Federal Election Commission lists the each state’s electoral votes for the 2001-2010 period. (*)
There are a number of interesting points. First, there are still 538 total electoral votes. Thus, a majority, 270, clinch victory in the Electoral College.
Second, the states with the most electoral votes are now: California (55), Texas (34), New York (31), Florida (27), Illinois (21), and Pennsylvania (21).
Third, the distribution of electoral votes tends to hurt the viability of the non-southern strategy of some Democrats. In that proposed strategy, the Democratic nominee would bypass the South and court voters in other states. A full 134 electoral votes come from the southern states of: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. While Florida is a southern state, the Democrats will compete there. Bypassing the South with the exception of Florida hands George Bush 134 electoral votes, almost half of the 270 he needs to win reelection.
Fourth, again leaving out Florida, the electoral votes of the southern states have increased in recent decades from 126 to 130 to now, 134. This reflects the growing population below the Mason-Dixon line. If there were ever a time for the Democrats to bypass the South, it was in prior decades, not now.
Adoption of a southern bypass strategy would warrant skepticism for the Democratic nominee’s chances on November 2nd.
April 15th, 2004 at 18:10
I’ve been studying the electoral college for a while. And it looks like like the border states of West Virginia, and Missouri will fall back into the Democratic column. And, right now, it looks like Ohio will go Democratic. Along with Florida. The reasons are many. But Florida has a large, Jewish population which leans Democratic. Ohio is mired in an economic mess. And the jobs that are available are really dead end jobs. While most of the better jobs are being sent overseas to save money. West Virginia and Missouri most likely will go Democratic if John Edwards is the Democratic vice presidential nominee. If President Bush starts getting pounded on gas prices; and the economy. And things start coming out on 9-11. He could be in for a pounding in November. My guess is that John Kerry may actually be leading in the electoral college by a 327 to 211 margin over George Bush. And that’s my most conservative figure. Campaigning in certain competitive states does not help either candidate. Ignoring the other polarized states could be a mistake for both candidates. Costly ones. Having $200 million dollars does help Mr. Bush. So it should be interesting. Pennsylvania and Michigan are not really competitive states. The pluarlity in the 2000 election in Michigan mirrors the African-American pluarality in Detroit. The same goes for Pennslyvania. Black Americans in both state will decide the winner. Even if it’s a smal turnout among African-Americans. While the Hispanic vote may decide the winner in Iowa, California and New Mexico; and to a certain extent Arizona. But either way, if it’s a nasty campaign. I expect a lot of people to stay home out of disgust.
April 16th, 2004 at 12:33
Very interesting. Conventional wisdom says the race will be close, but conventional wisdom is often wrong.