Bush will not lead the fight against gay marriage.
George W. Bush opposes gay marriage, but what political response will he have to the gay marriage court decision? Bush came out against gay marriage last summer.
Q: Mr. President, many of your supporters believe that homosexuality is immoral. They believe that it’s been given too much acceptance in policy terms and culturally. As someone who’s spoken out in strongly moral terms, what’s your view on homosexuality?
THE PRESIDENT: Yes, I am mindful that we’re all sinners, and I caution those who may try to take the speck out of their neighbor’s eye when they got a log in their own. I think it’s very important for our society to respect each individual, to welcome those with good hearts, to be a welcoming country. On the other hand, that does not mean that somebody like me needs to compromise on an issue such as marriage. And that’s really where the issue is heading here in Washington, and that is the definition of marriage. I believe in the sanctity of marriage. I believe a marriage is between a man and a woman. And I think we ought to codify that one way or the other. And we’ve got lawyers looking at the best way to do that.
(*) Furthermore, after the Goodridge gay marriage court decision, the White House released the following statement.
Marriage is a sacred institution between a man and a woman. Today’s decision of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court violates this important principle. I will work with congressional leaders and others to do what is legally necessary to defend the sanctity of marriage.
(†) President Bush’s opposition is clear. What is unclear is whether Bush will support a constitutional amendment.
Robert Novak suggests Bush will feel a great deal of pressure from his social conservative base on the gay marriage issue in 2004. Novak says Bush will have to take a strong stand one way or another. (‡)
I disagree. Bush will try to position himself somewhere between the amendment and only making statements. Bush could support the Marriage Protection Act (§) or other Congressional legislation that enhances the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which was passed into law in 1996.
Many conservatives are expecting President Bush to lead the fight for the amendment, or at least against gay marriage in a vague sort of way. I don’t see it like that. For one thing, the Office of the President has no official say on whether a constitutional amendment is passed. That is up to the Congress and the state legislatures. The President is seen as the national leader, and his support or opposition to an amendment is politically important. Yet, that only goes so far.
Bush will use the gay marriage issue in 2004, but his campaign will focus primarily on foreign policy and the economy.
Conservatives who want to pass a constitutional amendment or in some other way stop gay marriage must look beyond President Bush for leadership. Existing pressure groups would play a critical role in the fight. New pressure groups could be formed as well. A nonpartisan group would be of benefit if it were specific to the gay marriage issue and had room for liberals.