The Great Convention.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev writes that the Non-Proliferation Treaty framework is crumbling. A new framework is needed.
Frank Herbert is best known as a science fiction author. But one concept drawn from his novels may be the foundation of a new approach to replace the failing NPT. In his universe, the “Great Convention” mandated that any use of nuclear weapons against human targets would result in the complete and total annihilation of the offending regime. If the NPT cannot prevent countries from deciding to “go nuclear,” if the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) cannot stop all technologies and materials from reaching regimes intent on nuclearization, then a clear and definitive statement must be made from the United States, with allies if possible, alone if necessary. Rogue regimes must be placed on notice: any use of a nuclear weapon or nuclear-based device (such as a dirty bomb) will result in complete regime annihilation—no matter whether we have definitive proof of complicity or not. North Korea and Iran must be placed on notice that if they choose to cross the nuclear threshold, they cannot pass weapons to terrorists or third-party agents and disavow “any knowledge” of their actions. After all, it was a similar understanding that kept both the USSR and China from providing any nuclear materials to the scores of “liberation” movements that they sponsored. Fear of actual annihilation, not weak international sanctions, might be the only thing to hold these regimes back from actually producing weapons.
(*) Of course, it would be preferable to prevent rogue states from getting nuclear weapons in the first place.