North Korea situation gets less worse than originally thought, but still not very good.
North Korea has shifted course and will continue negotiations on its nuclear weapons program. On the other hand, Chinese analysts have given their assessment of the talks, and are blaming the United States.
The switch comes as China’s top diplomats have grown increasingly concerned that the United States does not have a negotiating strategy beyond using multilateral talks to put pressure on North Korea, analysts who have spoken to Chinese officials about the issue said today.
In contrast, these analysts said, China is persuaded that North Korea is prepared to trade away its nuclear program for the right mix of security and economic incentives.
Wang Yi, China’s vice foreign minister and the host of last week’s talks, told reporters in Manila on Monday that he considered the United States the “main obstacle” to settling the nuclear issue peacefully. He did not elaborate. . . .
(*) Allow me to. George W. Bush is a stubborn old mule. Bush’s orneriness is a character trait with both good and bad dimensions. In this case, being a stubborn old mule is more bad than it is good.
There is no need to give North Korea a non-aggression pact or a peace treaty. Such a gift would be anathema to our long-standing policy of promoting a peaceful and free reunification of the Koreas. North Korea is proposing a non-aggression pact, but that appears to be merely a negotiating position that they would bargain away. In return they would want some kind of oral reassurance that the US will not attack.
Kim Jong Il is a skittish, growly bear. To our eyes, he appears to act irrationally. His moves all make sense, however, in the context of the preservation of himself and his regime. Reassure the bear, don’t put him in a corner, and feed him, and he will not swipe at you with his nuclear stockpile and will let you dismantle it.
Here’s a bare bones suggestion for such an approach. “We won’t attack North Korea because of its nuclear program unless North Korea continues its nuclear program. We also offer certain economic incentives to North Korea. . . . ” Etc, etc.
James Laney and Jason T. Shaplen argue in favor of talking. (†)