Andrew Hagen

Diplomacy has failed. Either Saddam Hussein and his sons will leave Iraq, or there will be war.

France has denied the attempt to secure an eighteenth United Nations Security Council Resolution on Iraq, to explicitly authorize the forcible disarmament of Saddam’s regime. The time to stall is over. Once the 48 hour ultimatum has expired, hostilities will commence at a time of the allies’ choosing. Here is a summary of the major events that have served as a prelude to war.

• Thursday, 6 March: President Bush holds a national press conference. He pushes for an eighteenth Security Council Resolution on Iraq to explicitly authorize forcible disarmament. He says, “No matter what the whip count is, we’re calling for the vote. We want to see people stand up and say what their opinion is about Saddam Hussein and the utility of the United Nations Security Council. And so, you bet. It’s time for people to show their cards, to let the world know where they stand when it comes to Saddam.” (*)
• Friday, 7 March: UNMOVIC Executive Chairman Hans Blix delivers his quarterly report to the Security Council. In the working document, UNMOVIC (†) describes unresolved disarmament issues. (‡ PDF) Referring to Iraq’s efforts with regard to UNSCR 1441’s requirement that Iraq immediately cooperate, Blix says, “. . . these initiatives 3–4 months into the new resolution cannot be said to constitute ‘immediate’ cooperation. Nor do they necessarily cover all areas of relevance.” (§)
• Monday, 10 March: French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac announces that France will veto any Security Council resolution that authorizes war. (**)
• Tuesday, 11 March: The Security Council meets to discuss the Iraq/Kuwait situation. It takes no action. (††)
• Wednesday: 12 March: The Security Council meets again to discuss the Iraq/Kuwait situation. It again takes no action. (‡‡)
• Friday, 14 March: President Bush announces that the US will adopt the heavily negotiated road map to Middle East peace once Mahmoud Abbas is sworn in as Palestinian prime minister. (§§) It appears that the UK finally prevailed upon the US to announce this before hostilities with Iraq, not after. (***)
• Saturday, 15 March: In his weekly radio address, President Bush challenges the world to allow for a diplomatic solution. “Crucial days lie ahead for the free nations of the world. Governments are now showing whether their stated commitments to liberty and security are words alone—or convictions they’re prepared to act upon.” (†††)
• Saturday, 15 March: France, Germany, and Russia issue a joint statement. It says: “Messrs Blix and ElBaradei’s successive reports to the Security Council have shown that these inspections are producing results. Iraq’s disarmament is under way. There is every indication that it can be completed swiftly and by obeying the rules the Security Council has set. For her part, Iraq must cooperate actively and wholeheartedly.” (‡‡‡)
• Sunday, 16 March: Vice-President Cheney is interviewed on Meet the Press. He speaks in detail of the Administration’s war aims. (§§§)
• Sunday, 16 March: President Bush flies to the Azores Islands. There he meets with Tony Blair, Prime Minister of the UK; Jose Maria Aznar, Prime Minister of Spain; and the host of the summit, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, Prime Minister of Portugal. The leaders issue two joint statements. Initially, they issue a statement of vision of a liberated Iraq. (****) Secondly, they issue a statement of transatlantic solidarity. (††††). They also hold a press conference. The message of the summit is clear. The members of the Security Council must agree on a new resolution on Iraq that requires unconditional disarmament, and gives a deadline and ultimatum to do so. At the press conference, President Bush refers to his earlier challenge to other countries to “show their cards.” “I was the guy that said they ought to vote. And one country voted—at least showed their cards, I believe. It’s an old Texas expression, show your cards, when you’re playing poker. France showed their cards. After I said what I said, they said they were going to veto anything that held Saddam to account. So cards have been played. And we’ll just have to take an assessment after tomorrow to determine what that card meant.” (‡‡‡‡) The US does not want to introduce a new Security Council resolution only to see it vetoed by France. There have been several Security Council resolutions vetoed by the United States. The US does not want the Security Council veto to be rendered meaningless.
• Monday, 17 March: US Secretary of State Colin Powell gives a statement on Iraq. He says, “it is clear that there are some permanent members of the Council that would veto any such resolution or any resolution resembling the one that the British tabled Friday before last at the United Nations.” (§§§§)
• Monday, 17 March: France signals that it would still veto a resolution explicitly authorizing force. The US, UK, and Spain jointly announce that they no longer seek such a resolution. (*****) John D. Negroponte, US Ambassador to the UN says, “We advocated a second [editor’s note: eighteenth] resolution because a united Council would have shown it was intent on enforcing Resolution 1441 and disarming Iraq. We believe that the vote would have been close. We regret that in the face of an explicit threat to veto by a permanent member, the vote counting became a secondary consideration.” (†††††)
• Monday, 17 March: Secretary-General of the UN Kofi Annan states his regret that war now appears inevitable, and announces that UN staff, including weapons inspectors, will be withdrawn from Iraq immediately. (‡‡‡‡‡)
• Monday, 17 March: France states its regret that forcible disarmament will proceed. (§§§§§)
• Monday, 17 March: President Bush gives a nationally televised address. In it, he calls for Saddam Hussein and his sons to leave Iraq within 48 hours, or face the prospect of forcible disarmament. In the speech, Bush makes claims as to why the use of force against Iraq is justified under both US law and international law. (******)
• Monday, 17 March: The US Homeland Security Department raises the national threat level to “High” risk, or Level Orange. The statement says, “The Intelligence Community believes that terrorists will attempt multiple attacks against U.S.and Coalition targets worldwide in the event of a U.S led military campaign against Saddam Hussein.” (††††††)
• Tuesday, 18 March: The US announces a list of over 30 countries that have joined the ad hoc coalition to forcibly disarm Iraq. (‡‡‡‡‡‡)
• Wednesday, 19 March: President Bush makes certain determinations to use military force. (§§§§§§) Forty-eight hour ultimatum period passes. Hostilities commence.

I support the forcible disarmament of Iraq. I hope this conflict is as quick and painless as possible. I hope there are as few civilian casualties as possible. I hope our troops suffer as few casualties as possible. To them I would say: fight well, and come back home safely.

Update: 19 March 2003: Several entries added.

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