Saddam Hussein’s collapsing hold on power.
Saddam Hussein held a sham election in which he got 100% of the vote, where few voters dared to use the curtained voting stations to cast their ballots freely. (*) Then, only after the election, he opened Iraq’s jails and freed all but the non-Arabs, or all but the non-Iraqis, according to various reports. In the mob frenzy that resulted, several people were tragically trampled to death. (†) Classified as missing/believed captured, Lt. Cmdr. Scott Speicher of the US Navy was not among the released. The fact that Hussein opened the jails only after the election, and not before, when the release could have sparked an emotional backlash against his regime, is indicative of Hussein’s paranoia.
Opening the prisons is a standard tactic used by governments when they face the threat of being overwhelmed by a superior military force. In this case, Saddam Hussein appears to have hoped not only to bolster his armed forces with released prisoners, but also to increase his support among the Iraqi people and win international support. After it became clear to Iraqis that some unknown large number of prisoners will never be freed, because they died in prison without notice to their families, or were secretly executed, spontaneous protests have challenged the regime. (‡)
Meanwhile, for the past several weeks, Saddam Hussein has been conducting a purge of his high-level security officials, including of Tikiritis, his most loyal cadre. (§)
The regime is getting more and more desperate. Saddam Hussein must know that one way or another, his reign of tyranny will soon end.
Update: 3 April 2003. Text slightly changed to correct misstatement. Either Arabs or Iraqis were freed, and either non-Arabs or non-Iraqis were not freed. (**)